Gold (XAU/USD) enters the week of April 21–25, 2025, maintaining strong bullish momentum, having recently reached a record high of $3,357.40 per ounce. This surge is attributed to escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, and robust demand from central banks and institutional investors.
XAU/USD Weekly Forecast (April 21–25, 2025)
Gold (XAU/USD) maintains a bullish stance entering the week of April 21–25, 2025, following a strong close near $3,327 after hitting a record high of $3,357.40.
The uptrend is supported by global uncertainty, central bank demand, and a weaker US dollar. Key levels to watch include resistance at $3,335 and support at $3,245, with the US GDP report on April 25 likely to drive market volatility.
- Current Bias: Bullish
- Last Week’s Performance: Closed near $3,327 after peaking at $3,357.40
- Key Resistance Levels: $3,335, $3,350, $3,375
- Key Support Levels: $3,245, $3,205, $3,165
- Short-Term Trend: Uptrend with potential consolidation
- Long-Term Outlook: Bullish, with projections up to $3,700 by year-end
- Crucial Event: U.S. Q1 GDP report on April 25 – potential volatility trigger
- Potential Move: Break above $3,350 could target $3,375 and beyond
- Risk to Watch: Stronger-than-expected U.S. data may prompt a pullback toward $3,245
Technical Confluence Zones
Key price zones at $3,335 (resistance) and $3,245 (support) are acting as major decision points for XAU/USD this week.
| Level | Type | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| $3,335 | Daily Resistance | Key breakout trigger |
| $3,245 | 4H Support Zone | Re-entry zone for buyers |
| $3,205 | Daily Support | Trend-defining level |
| $3,165 | Psychological Barrier | Short-term pivot point |
Forecasted Move: April 21–25, 2025
XAU/USD is anticipated to extend its bullish run, targeting $3,375 and potentially $3,405 if momentum persists. A break below $3,245 may trigger a short-term correction toward $3,205. Key movement hinges on Thursday’s U.S. Q1 GDP report, likely to spark volatility.
Base Case Scenario: Bullish Continuation
- Expected Move: $3,327 → $3,375 and possibly $3,405
- Catalysts:
- Breakout above the critical resistance level at $3,335
- U.S. dollar weakness amid trade tensions
- Sustained central bank demand for gold
Alternative Scenario: Bearish Pullback
- Possible Correction: Down to $3,245 or $3,205
- Catalysts:
- Stronger-than-expected U.S. GDP on April 25
- Market profit-taking after recent rally
- A surprise risk-off move from global markets
XAU/USD Technical Outlook: Key Levels to Watch
The XAU/USD pair maintains a bullish outlook across all major timeframes. On the 1-hour chart, support is seen at $3,245 and $3,205, with resistance near $3,335 and $3,350. The 4-hour chart also favours buyers, supported above $3,245, while eyeing key resistance at $3,375.
| Timeframe | Trend Direction | Key Support Levels | Key Resistance Levels |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-Hour | Bullish | $3,245, $3,205 | $3,335, $3,350 |
| 4-Hour | Bullish | $3,245, $3,205 | $3,350, $3,375 |
| Daily | Bullish | $3,205, $3,165 | $3,375, $3,405 |
XAU/USD Trend Analysis (April 21–25, 2025)
The broader trend for XAU/USD remains firmly bullish, supported by a clear structure of higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart. Price action is holding above key moving averages, and recent momentum has pushed the pair above several resistance levels, reinforcing market optimism for further upside.
Short-Term Trend (1H–4H):
- The pair is showing signs of being slightly overbought, with RSI readings above 70 on intraday charts.
- The 1-hour chart reveals early signs of consolidation around the $3,335–$3,350 region.
- Expected move: A mild dip toward $3,245–$3,205, followed by renewed bullish momentum targeting $3,375 and $3,405.
Long-Term Trend (Daily):
The long-term outlook remains bullish, underpinned by:
- A clean breakout above a long-term ascending trendline
- A rising 100-day and 200-day EMA, signalling sustained strength
- Strong bullish structure with a target toward $3,405 and potentially $3,500 if the uptrend continues
A close below $3,205 would be required to challenge the current bullish stance and suggest deeper correction risk.
Multi-Timeframe Trend Overview: XAU/USD (April 21–25, 2025)
The XAU/USD pair maintains a broadly bullish structure across multiple timeframes. The 1-hour chart indicates early signs of consolidation following recent gains, while the 4-hour chart suggests a potential pause or minor retracement.
On the daily timeframe, the uptrend remains intact, with price action holding firmly above key moving averages, indicating that any pullbacks may offer buying opportunities within the broader bullish context.
| Timeframe | Trend Direction | Technical Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 1H | Slightly Bullish | Short-term consolidation below $3,350 |
| 4H | Neutral / Bullish | Potential pause; key support holding at $3,245 |
| Daily | Strong Bullish | Higher highs and a breakout above key resistance |
Key Economic Events Impacting XAU/USD This Week (April 21–25):
This week’s price action in gold will be influenced by a series of high-impact economic indicators. Central to market attention is the release of the US Q1 GDP data on Thursday, which could shift expectations around the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and subsequently impact dollar-denominated commodities like gold.
Upcoming Economic Events:
Eurozone:
- April 23 – Consumer Confidence Data
Forecast: -14.5 | Previous: -14.5
A stronger figure may provide some risk-on sentiment, mildly capping gold demand.
United States:
- April 25 – Advance GDP (Q1)
Forecast: 2.0% QoQ | Previous: 3.2%
A lower-than-expected reading could drive gold higher, while a strong figure may limit further gains. - April 25 – Durable Goods Orders
A volatile metric that could impact short-term risk sentiment and safe-haven flows. - April 26 – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Final)
A surprise uptick in confidence could strengthen the dollar, potentially weighing on gold.
Traders monitoring gold’s response to macro data may also want to review the EUR/USD Weekly Forecast for April 21–25, 2025, which highlights similar economic drivers impacting the forex market.
Potential Price Action Scenarios:
Gold’s trajectory this week is closely tied to macroeconomic developments, particularly from the US. Price behaviour around key technical levels such as $3,335 and $3,245 will be critical in identifying breakout or reversal patterns.
Bullish Scenario:
- Break above $3,335 with a supportive macro backdrop
- Sustained momentum could drive gold toward $3,375 and potentially $3,405
- RSI cooling off may reignite buying interest in the mid-week
Bearish Scenario:
- Strong US GDP or robust consumer sentiment leads to a pullback
- Failure to hold above $3,245 may push gold toward $3,205 or $3,165
- The market may engage in profit-taking following record-high levels
Outlook Summary
Gold (XAU/USD) enters the week with a bullish bias, driven by a combination of technical breakouts, fundamental tailwinds, and geopolitical uncertainty.
Traders will be watching key resistance at $3,350 and $3,375 for signs of continuation, while support at $3,245 and $3,205 remains critical to the short-term bullish structure. With the US GDP report on the horizon, volatility is expected to rise, offering both risk and opportunity.
| Outlook Type | Direction | Target Area |
|---|---|---|
| Short-Term (1–2 Days) | Mild Bearish | $3,245 – $3,205 |
| Mid-Term (3–5 Days) | Bullish Bias | $3,375 – $3,405 |
| Long-Term | Bullish | $3,500 and beyond |
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
What is the XAU/USD forecast for April 21–25, 2025?
Gold is expected to retain a bullish tone, targeting $3,375 and $3,405 while holding key support at $3,245.
How could the US GDP data affect gold prices?
A weaker GDP figure may weaken the dollar, pushing gold higher. Conversely, stronger data could prompt a short-term correction in gold.
What are the key XAU/USD support and resistance levels this week?
Resistance levels are noted at $3,335 and $3,375; support sits at $3,245 and $3,205.
Is the gold trend still bullish in the long run?
Yes, gold maintains a long-term bullish outlook, supported by sustained demand and breakout price action, with potential targets at $3,500 and higher.
