The EUR/USD pair enters the week of April 21–25, 2025, with strong bullish momentum, following a robust performance last week. After opening near 1.1310, the euro climbed steadily to close around 1.1405, posting a gain of nearly 100 pips.
This move was driven by a softer US dollar, dovish Fed signals, and resilience in the euro despite the European Central Bank’s recent rate cut.
In this EUR/USD weekly forecast, we explore both technical and macroeconomic drivers shaping the Euro to USD price action. With the euro breaking above key resistance zones, traders are now watching to see if it can sustain the rally toward 1.1500 and beyond.
All eyes will be on US economic data, particularly Thursday’s Q1 GDP report, which could determine whether the bullish trend continues or pauses.
Whether you’re trading intraday or holding positions longer-term, this EUR/USD analysis for April 2025 will help you navigate the market confidently.
Quick Summary: EUR/USD Weekly Forecast (April 21–25, 2025)
- Current Bias: Bullish
- Last Week’s Performance: Gained nearly 100 pips, closing around 1.1405
- Key Resistance Levels: 1.1473, 1.1500
- Key Support Levels: 1.1260, 1.1185
- Short-Term Trend: Uptrend holding above 1.1300
- Long-Term Outlook: Turning bullish after breakout above major trendline
- Crucial Event: US Q1 GDP report on April 25 – could trigger major volatility
- Potential Move: A sustained break above 1.1473 may push the price toward 1.1570
- Risk to Watch: Strong US data could trigger a pullback toward 1.1260
Strategy Tip: Watch for buying opportunities above 1.1300 with targets around 1.1500, but stay cautious around major US news releases.
Technical Confluence Zones
Key price zones at 1.1473 (resistance) and 1.1260 (support) are acting as major decision points for EUR/USD this week.
| Level | Type | Significance |
| 1.1473 | Daily Resistance | Key breakout trigger |
| 1.14 | Psychological Barrier | Short-term pivot point |
| 1.126 | 4h Support Zone | Re-entry zone for buyers |
| 1.1185 | Daily Support | Trend-defining level |
Forecasted Move: April 21–25, 2025
EUR/USD is expected to extend its bullish run, targeting 1.1500 and possibly 1.1570, if momentum holds. A break below 1.1260 may trigger a short-term correction toward 1.1185. Key movement hinges on Thursday’s US Q1 GDP report, likely to spark volatility.
Base Case Scenario: Bullish Continuation
- Expected Move: 1.1400 → 1.1500 and possibly 1.1570
- Catalysts:
- Breakout above the critical resistance level at 1.1473
- US dollar weakness amid trade tensions
- Positive eurozone sentiment despite ECB rate cut
Buyers are likely to take control if EUR/USD sustains above 1.1400, with short-term targets around 1.1500 and mid-term resistance near 1.1570.
Alternative Scenario: Bearish Pullback
- Possible Correction: Down to 1.1260 or 1.1185
- Catalysts:
- Stronger-than-expected US GDP on April 25
- Market profit-taking after a 3-week euro rally
- A surprise risk-off move from global markets
A rejection at 1.1473 could lead to a pullback toward support at 1.1260, offering potential re-entry opportunities for bulls.
EUR/USD Technical Outlook: Key Levels to Watch
The EUR/USD pair maintains a bullish outlook across all major timeframes. On the 1-hour chart, support is seen at 1.1300 and 1.1260, with resistance near 1.1400 and 1.1473. The 4-hour chart also favours buyers, supported above 1.1260, while eyeing key resistance at 1.1500.
On the daily timeframe, the pair has broken above long-standing resistance, with 1.1185 and 1.0995 acting as solid support zones. A sustained push beyond 1.1473 could open the door to the next major level at 1.1935.
| Timeframe | Trend Direction | Key Support Levels | Key Resistance Levels |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-Hour | Bullish | 1.1300, 1.1260 | 1.1400, 1.1473 |
| 4-Hour | Bullish | 1.1260, 1.1185 | 1.1473, 1.1500 |
| Daily | Bullish | 1.1185, 1.0995 | 1.1473, 1.1935 |
EUR/USD Trend Analysis (April 21–25, 2025)
The broader trend for EUR/USD remains firmly bullish, supported by a clear structure of higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart. Price action is holding above key moving averages, and recent momentum has pushed the pair above several resistance levels, reinforcing market optimism for further upside.
However, in the short term, technical indicators suggest a possible pause or pullback as the pair nears overbought conditions. Consolidation above support zones could offer fresh buying opportunities before the next upward move.
Short-Term Trend (1H–4H):
- The pair is showing signs of being slightly overbought, with RSI readings above 70 on intraday charts.
- The 1-hour chart reveals early signs of consolidation around the 1.1400–1.1430 region.
- Expected move: A mild dip toward 1.1300–1.1260, followed by renewed bullish momentum targeting 1.1473 and 1.1500.
Long-Term Trend (Daily):
The long-term outlook remains bullish, underpinned by:
- A clean breakout above a long-term descending trendline
- A rising 100-day and 200-day EMA, signalling sustained strength
- Strong bullish structure with a target toward 1.1570 and potentially 1.1935 if the uptrend continues
A close below 1.1185 would be required to challenge the current bullish stance and suggest deeper correction risk.
Multi-Timeframe Trend Overview: EUR/USD (April 21–25, 2025)
The EUR/USD pair maintains a broadly bullish structure across multiple timeframes. The 1-hour chart indicates early signs of consolidation following recent gains, while the 4-hour chart suggests a potential pause or minor retracement.
On the daily timeframe, the uptrend remains intact, with price action holding firmly above key moving averages, indicating that any pullbacks may offer buying opportunities within the broader bullish context.
| Timeframe | Trend Direction | Technical Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 1H | Slightly Bullish | Short-term pullback likely |
| 4H | Neutral / Weak Bullish | May break trendline if data disappoints |
| Daily | Strong Bullish | Higher highs remain intact |
Key Economic Events Impacting EUR/USD This Week (April 21–25):
This week’s EUR/USD price action will be influenced by several high-impact data releases. The spotlight is on the Eurozone Consumer Confidence report (April 23), which could shape European Central Bank expectations, while the US Q1 GDP release (April 25) will be key in gauging dollar strength.
According to the Forex Factory Economic Calendar, here are key events that could influence EUR/USD:
Eurozone:
- April 23 – Consumer Confidence Data:Forecast: -14.5 (Prev: -14.5)
- A higher-than-expected figure may support EUR, reducing rate cut expectations.
US:
- April 25 – Advance GDP (Q1):
- Forecast: 2.0% QoQ (Prev: 3.2%)
- A strong reading may support the USD, capping EUR/USD gains.
- Durable Goods Orders and Consumer Sentiment Reports are also due, potentially fuelling USD volatility.
Traders interested in a broader view of the forex market this week may also want to read the GBP/USD weekly forecast for April 21–25, 2025, which highlights similar macroeconomic drivers affecting both major currency pairs.
Potential Price Action Scenarios:
EUR/USD may extend its bullish run if price breaks above 1.1473, targeting 1.1500 and potentially 1.1570. Conversely, failure to hold above 1.1260 could trigger a corrective move toward 1.1185 or deeper support at 1.0995.
Bullish Scenario:
- Break above 1.1473 with strong Eurozone data or weak US GDP → Target: 1.1500, then 1.1570
- RSI cooling off may reignite buying pressure
Bearish Scenario:
- Soft Eurozone data or strong US data leads to a breakdown below 1.1260
- Next downside targets: 1.1185, 1.0995
Outlook Summary
EUR/USD retains a bullish bias heading into the week, supported by strong technical structure and favourable market sentiment. However, upcoming data releases could introduce volatility, making support levels critical for sustaining upward momentum.
| Outlook Type | Direction | Target Area |
|---|---|---|
| Short-Term (1–2 Days) | Mild Bearish | 1.1300 – 1.1260 |
| Mid-Term (3–5 Days) | Bullish Bias | 1.1500 – 1.1570 |
| Long-Term | Bullish | 1.1935 and beyond |
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
What is the EUR/USD forecast for April 21–25, 2025?
The euro is expected to remain strong, with targets at 1.1500 while holding support above 1.1260.
How could the US GDP data affect EUR/USD?
A strong GDP report could boost the USD and pressure the pair; weak data may support euro gains.
What are the key EUR/USD support and resistance levels this week?
Resistance at 1.1473 and 1.1500; support at 1.1260 and 1.1185.
Is the EUR/USD trend still bullish long-term?
Yes, it remains bullish with higher highs, supported by EMAs and momentum toward 1.1935.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice; traders should conduct their own research before making decisions.
