A senior Conservative figure has delivered a stark warning ahead of next month’s local elections, forecasting a brutal night for his own party — and a disappointing showing for Labour.
Lord Hayward, a Conservative peer and veteran pollster, has predicted that the Tories could lose as many as 525 seats across England on 1 May.
Voters across 23 local authorities will head to the polls, along with six mayoral contests also taking place. This marks the first major test for political parties since last summer’s general election.
With just days remaining before voters head to the polls, many are also being reminded of the voter ID requirements now in place.
Anyone planning to vote must ensure they are registered and have the correct identification. For a full guide on what’s needed and the key deadlines, read our detailed breakdown on the voter ID deadline for England’s local elections 2025.
Bleak Forecast for the Conservatives
According to Lord Hayward, the Conservative Party is likely to hold onto just 375 to 425 of the nearly 1,000 council seats it’s defending.
“Bad night for both the Conservatives, in terms of heavy losses but from a very high water mark,” he stated.
These losses would represent a dramatic collapse for the Tories, particularly in areas where they previously enjoyed strong support. It’s a prediction that adds pressure to an already embattled leadership, with concerns mounting over the party’s performance and public perception.
Labour Also Facing Setbacks
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer won’t be spared the scrutiny. While Labour isn’t expected to suffer major losses in seat count, Lord Hayward has warned that they may struggle to gain ground in key battlegrounds in the Midlands and North.
“They should have won,” Hayward said, but he predicts that Reform UK will instead reap the benefits of voter disillusionment in those regions.
The pollster pointed specifically to Doncaster, Durham, and Lancashire — all areas where Labour retained seats in 2021 — but now face a significant threat from Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.
“In Doncaster, [Labour] currently hold 41 of 55 seats. On an awful night they will lose control. If they do so, it will be to Reform,” he cautioned.
Reform UK, the right-wing party fronted by Nigel Farage, is tipped to make notable inroads. Lord Hayward estimates the party could win between 400 and 450 seats — a major step forward for the relatively new political force.
In Labour-leaning counties like Oxfordshire and Cambridgeshire, however, the threat is more from the Liberal Democrats and Greens. These areas may see Labour wiped out on councils where its presence relies heavily on the academic centres.
“Unlike Doncaster, Durham or Lancs, Labour’s losses will be to the Lib Dems and Greens and will be based on aid and welfare issues,” Lord Hayward explained.
Backlash Over Labour’s Aid and Welfare Cuts
Sir Keir Starmer’s decision to reduce the UK’s aid budget to 0.3% of GDP and cut welfare by £4.8 billion has sparked backlash among traditional supporters. Critics argue these measures have contributed to Labour’s vulnerability in certain areas, especially among voters concerned about social care and inequality.
Conservatives Admit the Challenge Ahead
The gloomy outlook for the Conservatives was echoed by Kemi Badenoch, who acknowledged that the upcoming elections would be “very difficult” for the party. Speaking on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, she admitted the party is unlikely to repeat its previous success.
“Two-thirds of the seats four years ago we won – there’s no way we are going to be able to do that again,” she said.
Coalition Speculation Adds to Uncertainty
Adding to the political intrigue, the Tories are under pressure to clarify their stance on possible post-election deals with Reform UK. A leaked recording of shadow justice secretary Robert Jenrick revealed his desire for a united front against Labour.
“If Nigel Farage’s party become a ‘permanent or semi-permanent fixture on the British political scene’ then ‘life becomes a lot harder’ for the Tories,” Jenrick said.
While Badenoch has ruled out a formal national deal, she recently hinted that local Conservative councillors could form coalitions with Reform — a move Farage has since rejected.
With just days to go until voters head to the ballot box, tensions are rising across the political spectrum. Both Labour and the Conservatives are bracing for setbacks, while Reform UK prepares for what could be a landmark performance.
Lord Hayward’s projections are a sobering reminder of the shifting political landscape — one where traditional strongholds are no longer guaranteed, and emerging parties are poised to reshape the future of British politics.
