A chill has crept across European defence circles following a blunt warning from U.S. Defence Secretary Peter Hegseth during his first European visit in February. Hegseth didn’t mince words — the American military presence in Europe, he said, is “not forever.”
That statement landed with weighty impact. Since then, officials on both sides of the Atlantic have scrambled to downplay any notion of a U.S. military exit. Still, the signs are growing clearer: the era of American boots on European soil in vast numbers may be drawing to a close.
“I am sure that there will be some reduction of U.S. presence in Europe,” remarked retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, former commander of U.S. Army Europe.
Decades of Dependence
At the height of the Cold War, Europe hosted more than 400,000 American troops. Today, estimates range from 70,000 to 90,000 — a significant drop, even though the geopolitical stakes remain high.
While the U.S. commitment to NATO remains officially intact, doubts are creeping in. Speculation about troop cuts has taken centre stage, particularly in the lead-up to NATO’s upcoming leadership transition.
Potential Impact of a Drawdown
A report by Germany’s IW Cologne warned that Europe could take over a decade to replace key U.S. military assets if a major drawdown were to occur.
“It’s my advice to maintain that force posture as it is now,” stressed Gen. Christopher Cavoli, NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, during testimony to U.S. lawmakers. He added that America’s presence is vital to outmanoeuvre Russia’s ability to quickly amass forces near NATO’s borders.
Cavoli is set to retire this summer, and Washington is reportedly considering stepping away from its long-standing leadership role at NATO — possibly allowing a European to take command for the first time since 1949.
European capitals are split between cautious optimism and strategic preparation. Some, like Germany and Finland, are pressing Washington for a clear plan. German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius has publicly requested a “proper roadmap” to help Europe prepare for any changes.
The Pentagon has remained silent on the matter.
Meanwhile, NBC News reported that the U.S. could pull up to 10,000 troops from Poland and Romania. Both nations swiftly denied this, but the uncertainty lingers.
Troops by the Numbers
| Country | Estimated U.S. Troop Presence |
|---|---|
| Germany | 38,000+ |
| Poland | 14,000+ |
| Italy | 12,000+ |
| United Kingdom | 10,000+ |
This distribution highlights the strategic importance of Central Europe and the UK to U.S. military logistics.
Some European leaders worry that preparing too actively for a potential American withdrawal might only hasten its arrival.
“To quote [former German Chancellor Otto von] Bismarck, you don’t commit suicide because you fear death,” said Latvia’s Defence Minister Andris Sprūds at a recent conference in Paris.
This isn’t the first time the U.S. has considered pivoting its military priorities. Under Barack Obama, America began shifting focus toward Asia—until Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea reversed that approach.
Ben Harris of the Council on Foreign Relations believes the first to feel the brunt of any withdrawal would be Poland and the Baltic states.
“A partial withdrawal would likely start with those U.S. troops that have been deployed since February 2022,” he said, referring to NATO’s Enhanced Forward Presence programme.
U.S. forces in Europe fall into various categories — from permanent deployments to rotational forces and National Guard units working under bilateral agreements.
Removing even a fraction of these forces would require complex logistics, not to mention major costs. The U.S. also has high-value military assets in Europe, including nuclear weapons, tanks, helicopters, and the Aegis Ashore missile defence systems in Romania and Poland.
In 2020, Donald Trump proposed pulling 12,000 troops from Germany — a plan later shelved due to the sheer expense.
Hodges believes the uncertainty could be a wake-up call for Europe to unify its defence capabilities.
American troops offer nuclear, air, and naval deterrence, he noted. But in terms of manpower and ground capability, Europe may already have the upper hand — if it can coordinate effectively.
Europe’s decades-long reliance on American military might is under fresh scrutiny. Whether due to strategic realignment, domestic politics, or financial pressure, the U.S. seems poised to rethink its European footprint.
The continent may not be entirely on its own just yet, but it’s time to start planning like it could be.
